Based mostly on a examine by Frankovic and Kuhn (2022), the reply is each. Nonetheless, the worth of elevated innovation – measured in longevity good points – greater than offsets inefficiencies from overspending. Particularly, the authors use an intergenerational mannequin, through which people can acquire medical insurance and medical progress depends upon the well being sector’s return on funding. The authors calibrate their mannequin utilizing longevity knowledge from the Human Mortality Database from 19650 to 2005, earnings knowledge from the Present Inhabitants Survey (CPS), and well being expenditure knowledge from the Nationwide Heart for Well being Statistics (NCHS). This timeframe is related as a result of 1965 was the yr Medicare was launched in the US.
Utilizing this system, the authors discover the next:
… bigger medical insurance is accountable for a big a part of the rise in US well being care spending, however can also be accelerating medical progress. A welfare evaluation exhibits that though the subsidization of well being care by medical insurance results in extreme well being expenditure, the life expectancy good points attributable to the induced medical progress greater than compensate for this.
Total, greater ranges of medical insurance scale back consumption as extra money is spent on well being care. On the identical time, capital – particularly capital invested in analysis and growth – will increase as medical insurance will increase the return on funding as extra sick sufferers can afford therapy. The authors notice that:
One rationalization for why the advantages of medical advances more and more outweigh the losses from ethical hazard lies within the regular development of earnings: as per capita consumption will increase over time, individuals have a tendency to put an growing worth on life (Corridor and Jones, 2007, Che et al., 2021). This argument extends to the ethical hazard evaluation, through which people are keen to tolerate growing bias from medical insurance in change for a rise in lifespan, as long as it solely slows, however doesn’t reverse, consumption development.
The authors additionally notice that drug costs enhance over time resulting from Baumol price illness; Specifically, the mixed affect of productiveness development within the remaining product sectors and medical advances themselves result in greater costs.
You’ll be able to learn the total paper right here.