Non-oil home exports (NODX) plunged 20.6% yoy in December after falling 14.7% in November, marking the third straight month-to-month decline. Each electronics and non-electronics exports fell, with demand from China, Indonesia and Hong Kong being notably weak. The December quantity marked the worst drop since February 2013.
Seasonally adjusted, NODX exports fell 3.3percentm/m after falling 9.2% in November.
On the outlook, Alvin Liew of United Abroad Financial institution stated:
“The cracks within the export outlook have now turn out to be extra seen with the consecutive and deeper y/y contractions. We are going to seemingly see just a few extra months of y/y declines in NODX for H1 2023 earlier than factoring in an enchancment in H2.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists count on whole nominal exports to rise 4.2% and imports 4.6% in 2023, pushing the commerce steadiness to a surplus of $118.4 billion. For 2024, panellists count on exports to extend by 6.2% and imports by 7.2%, with the commerce surplus rising to $121.0 billion.