Weekly macro indicators up to 01/14/2023

Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by way of 1/14/2023, printed yesterday.

Figures 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through fred, OECD, WECI extensionand calculations by the writer.

The Weekly Tracker, which runs for the week ending November twenty sixth. had fallen into destructive territory posted a big restoration and has now outperformed the WEI (1.2%) and the WECI+2% (2.2%). WEI’s studying for the week ended January 14 of 1.2% must be interpreted as development of 1.2% year-on-year if the 1.2% studying had been to carry for a full quarter Baumeister et al. A studying of 0.17% is interpreted as a development charge of 0.17%, which is above the long-term development development charge. Common US GDP development over the interval 2000-2019 is about 2%, implying a development charge of two.17% for the 12 months ended December 24. The worth of the OECD Weekly Tracker of two.9% might be taken as a y/y development charge of two.9% for the 14.01. interpret ending 12 months. The 95% interval for the weekly US tracker is [2.3%, 4.2%].

The Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index is calculated on the nation degree. This enables the unfold within the cyclical element to be seen, as proven in Determine 2 under (NOTE: These are cyclical charges, so add state-specific development development to get precise development). The US sequence is proven in daring darkish crimson and extends to 1/14/2023 (finish of state degree two weeks earlier).

Figures 2: Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for states (till 12/31/2022) and USA (till 1/14/2023) (daring darkish crimson). Sources: WECI extension.

General, the weekly indices are slowing, aside from the Weekly Tracker, which is experiencing vital revisions. The WECI additionally exhibits a slowdown in cyclical development in most states.