Financial indicators from mid-January 2023

With the December 2022 Industrial Manufacturing launch (-0.7% vs. -0.1 Bloomberg consensus, m/m), we have now the next image of the financial indicators launched by the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee together with the month-to-month GDP from IHS Markit to be tracked:

Figures 1: Non-Farm Employment, NFP (darkish blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 01/18 (blue +), civil employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private revenue with out transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue ) and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all logs normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, through FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (publication of January 3, 2023), Bloomberg (as of January 18) and personal calculations.

The decline in industrial manufacturing got here as a giant unfavorable shock. Bearing in mind this and different reviews, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its This autumn nowcast to three.5% from 4.1% q/q SAAR.

Figures 2: GDP (black), WSJ imply, January 2023 survey (blue), October 2022 (yellow), GDPNow 01/18/23 (purple sq.). Supply: BEA 2022Q3 third rel, WSJ (varied), Atlanta Fed.

Regardless of the large drop in industrial manufacturing (bear in mind NBER BCDC places the emphasis on nonfarm payrolls and private revenue web of transfers), the Atlanta Fed rely nonetheless says constructive This autumn GDP development.