Russian GDP Revised: A Larger Hit in Q2

BOFIT revisions date again a number of years and present a sharper decline within the second quarter (5.2% q/q versus 1.9% initially).

Sources: BOFIT (23.12.2022).

The contraction in GDP within the center two quarters of 2022 represents an annualized decline of 9.6%.

Do sanctions work? On March 3, S&P World forecast a 7% decline (this autumn/this autumn). If Russia’s GDP stagnates in This autumn, the decline in This autumn 2018 will likely be 12.7%, not removed from the IMF’s -13.9% in July World Financial Outlook Replace Forecast. the World Financial Outlook November forecast was for a 7.6% decline (based mostly on pre-revised GDP estimates).

A abstract of the influence based mostly on WE extension Forecasts, from Nelson/CRS:

Sources:R. Nelson, “The Financial Influence of Russia Sanctions,” CRS drawback description 12092 (December 13, 2022).

Different latest discussions on the influence of sanctions on Russia from NPR, NYT.

Whereas I’ve centered on the macroeconomic influence, keep in mind that the principle goal of the sanctions is to weaken Russia’s will and skill to wage the conflict in Ukraine (e.g. see State Division).