The S&P International/CIPS Flash Composite Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) was 49.0 in December, down from 48.2 in November. In consequence, the index remained beneath the unchanged 50.0 line, suggesting a continued deterioration in non-public sector working situations from the earlier month.
The manufacturing PMI was 44.7 in December in comparison with 46.5 in November. Companies PMI exercise index rose to 50.0 in December (November: 48.8). Throughout the non-public sector, enterprise exercise, new orders and export orders fell in December, whereas employment fell for the primary time since early 2021 and enterprise confidence was muted. Enter price inflation eased however remained substantial, whereas output worth inflation additionally eased.
Chris Williamson, Chief Working Officer at S&P International mentioned:
“December information raises the chance that the UK is in recession, with PMI exhibiting a 0.3% contraction in fourth-quarter GDP after falling 0.2% within the three months to September. For now, the downturn seems to be comparatively gentle and the moderation within the price of decline in December is encouraging information, as is the additional important moderation in inflationary pressures.”
Focus Economics panellists count on the financial system to contract by 0.5% in 2023, down 0.2 share level from final month’s forecast. In 2024, GDP will develop by 1.1%.